Punters favourite bet for the number of votes against the PM? 90-114
Chief Business Commentator @JimMooreJourno commentsCloseWill Theresa May survive as prime minister? James Moore looks at the odds
Bookmakers reported a flood of money for the prime minister throughout the morning, with bets on her winning making up around 90 per cent of the money taken.
The weight of money saw bookmakers’ opening prices rapidly contracting.
Ladbrokes tweeted an opening quote of 10/11 on each outcome. Those who got on the Prime Minister winning at that price should congratulate themselves. It wasn’t available for long. Within less than an hour she was at 4-11, before the price fell further to 1-6.
Paddy Power Betfair similarly crunched its odds, opening at a more May friendly 2-5 before itself moving in to 1-6. At such short prices, that represents a very big move.
Her losing the vote, meanwhile, had drifted out to 7-2 at the time of writing. That’s a long shot in a two-runner race but still not beyond the bounds of possibility given the febrile climate at Westminster.
Perhaps the most interesting market was on the number of votes piling up against her. It suggested that if Ms May does win her victory could prove pyrrhic.
Paddy Power’s favourite – at 11-4 – was 90-109. The magic number being talked about for her survival beyond a few days was something less than 100 votes against.
Bookies also reported heavy interest in betting on the next Tory leader, with all the money coming for Brexiteers, reflecting the fact that the decision will be made by an ageing and Brexit-backing membership from a final two selected by MPs. A Brexiteer would likely be among them.
Paddy Power’s news on that market suggested the most likely winner of a future leadership battle is arguably the most divisive politician in Britain, and a man who has become a hate figure for a sizeable portion of the country. Boris Johnson moved into 4/1 favourite, leapfrogging former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab in the process.
Paddy Power spokesman Lee Price said the former foreign secretary had taken more than three quarters of the bets with his firm in that market over the morning.
He also moved into poll position to be the next prime minister, taking over from Jeremy Corbyn at a price of 5/1.